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For each of the two different exposure measures, we compare student performance at schools above the 75th percentile of exposure to those at the 25th percentile of exposure. We present graphs that take 2010-11 – the year immediately prior to SSA – as our base year, allowing us to compare the years before versus after tenure reform. First, let’s compare student performance in schools with relatively high versus relatively low rates of teacher evaluation in the first year of the SSA regime. The 25th percentile school had 88% evaluation rates in 2011-12, while the 75th percentile school had 98% evaluation rates. As can be seen in the graph below, overall student performance – conditional on student fixed effects – was declining in the years prior to the policy change and rebounded in the years following the policy change. Note that the pre-post difference measured just 1-2% of a standard deviation, and this would be hard to detect from trends in statewide average achievement. The rebound in test scores following the policy change may be due to SSA but may also be due to unobserved factors from around the same time, or to “regression to the mean,” the tendency for extreme values to shift toward the long-run average with time. Our quasi-experimental approach is to infer the effect of SSA from changes in the difference between students in more versus less exposed schools. In the years following the policy change, the dashed line is above the solid line, meaning that students in schools with more evaluated teachers did relatively better on the state tests than students in schools with fewer evaluated teachers. These differences are statistically distinct from zero at conventional levels in both 2011-12 and 2012-1314, but the differences are very small – less than one-half of one percent of a standard deviation increase in test scores.15 And the pre-reform gaps tended to be at least as large as the post-reform gaps. Students in schools that were more exposed to SSA in terms of teacher evaluation rates were already outperforming less exposed students prior to 2011, and they did not extend that lead afterward. As an alternative, let’s compare student performance in schools with historically high versus low rates of rookie teachers. We measure this based on the average percentage of first-year teachers in a school from 2007-08 through 2009-10.
For the original version including any supplementary images or video, visit https://www.brookings.edu/research/did-tenure-reform-in-florida-affect-student-test-scores/
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